FootyTips 
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · St James Park
Match Status
Kickoff 16:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Newcastle United narrowly favoured (41%). Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 41%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 33%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 41%
model top outcome · 41%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Newcastle United win
Model 40.8% vs market 45.6%, edge -4.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.07 at duelbits · odds value -16%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Newcastle United win is 2.07 with duelbits. The model has it at 40.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 45.6% (-4.8pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Aston Villa win
Model 33.0% vs market 29.2%, edge +3.8pp.
Best available odds: 3.3 at stake · odds value +9%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Aston Villa win is 3.30 with stake. The model has it at 33.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 29.2% (+3.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.2% vs market 25.2%, edge +0.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.8 at stake · odds value -1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.80 with stake. The model has it at 26.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 25.2% (+0.9pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 40.8% | 26.2% | 33.0% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave) | 45.6% | 25.2% | 29.2% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 43.6% | 25.6% | 30.7% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.03 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2 | 3.55 | 3.1 |
| vave | 2.05 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.07 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| ★ Best | 2.07 duelbits | 3.8 stake | 3.3 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Newcastle United 41% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 33%; expected goals 1.44-1.27; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 43.6%/25.6%/30.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Newcastle United win: 41%
- Draw: 26%
- Aston Villa win: 33%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.44 - 1.27
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Aston Villa Elo 1748
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 7 fixture at St James Park: Newcastle United 41%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 33%. With near-level Elo ratings (Newcastle United 1737, Aston Villa 1748), Newcastle United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United are favoured at 41%. Newcastle United 41% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 33%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave imply 45.6% Newcastle United win, 25.2% draw, 29.2% Aston Villa win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 43.6% / 25.6% / 30.7%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Newcastle United vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.