Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Prediction

Oct 17, 04:30 PM UTC · Matchweek 7 · St James Park

Match Status

Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa · FT · Miss

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Newcastle United narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 40%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 34%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%

Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Newcastle United
model top outcome · 40%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-10-16
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 40% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 34%; expected goals 1.42-1.29; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 41.1%/26.1%/32.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/newcastle-united-vs-aston-villa-2026-10-17-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/newcastle-united-vs-aston-villa-2026-10-17.png" alt="Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa. Model pick: Newcastle United. Actual result: Aston Villa.

Brier contribution: 0.6646 · settled 2026-11-06

Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 40%
Draw: 26%
Aston Villa win: 34%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.42 - 1.29
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1707 · Aston Villa Elo 1781

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-16. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 7 fixture at St James Park: Newcastle United 40%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 34%. With a modest Elo edge to Aston Villa (1781 vs 1707), Newcastle United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Newcastle United are favoured at 40%. Newcastle United 40% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 34%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 42.0% Newcastle United win, 26.0% draw, 32.0% Aston Villa win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 41.1% / 26.1% / 32.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Newcastle United vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.