Newcastle United vs Arsenal Prediction

Nov 21, 05:30 PM UTC · Matchweek 11 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 17:30 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 62%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 17%, draw 21%, Arsenal 62%; model score 0-2.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 62%

Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction: 17% / 21% / 62% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 62%

0-2
model score forecast

55%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 17% / Draw 21% / Arsenal 62%; expected goals 0.92-1.98; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 17%
Draw: 21%
Arsenal win: 62%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-2
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.92 - 1.98
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams to score: 52%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1707 · Arsenal Elo 1997

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 62% in this Matchweek 11 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 17%, the draw 21%, Arsenal 62%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1997 vs 1707), and the model score forecast is 0–2.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favoured at 62%. Newcastle United 17% / Draw 21% / Arsenal 62%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.