FootyTips 
Newcastle United vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 11 · St James Park
Match Status
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 59%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 18%, draw 23%, Arsenal 59%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 59%
model top outcome · 59%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Newcastle United 18% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 59%; expected goals 0.96-1.90; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Newcastle United win: 18%
- Draw: 23%
- Arsenal win: 59%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.96 - 1.90
- Over 2.5: 54%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Arsenal Elo 2000
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 59% in this Matchweek 11 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 18%, the draw 23%, Arsenal 59%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1737), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 59%. Newcastle United 18% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 59%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Newcastle United vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.