Newcastle United vs Arsenal Prediction

Nov 21, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 11 · St James Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 57%. Overall probabilities: Newcastle United 20%, draw 23%, Arsenal 57%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 57%

Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction: 20% / 23% / 57% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 57%

0-1
model score forecast

54%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Newcastle United 20% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 57%; expected goals 0.99-1.84; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Newcastle United win: 20%
Draw: 23%
Arsenal win: 57%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.99 - 1.84
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Newcastle United Elo 1737 · Arsenal Elo 1979

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 57% in this Matchweek 11 fixture at St James Park — Newcastle United 20%, the draw 23%, Arsenal 57%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1979 vs 1737), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favoured at 57%. Newcastle United 20% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 57%.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Newcastle United vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.