FootyTips 
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Old Trafford
Match Status
Kickoff 16:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Manchester United to win at 62%. Overall probabilities: Manchester United 62%, draw 21%, Tottenham Hotspur 17%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 62%
model top outcome · 62%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Manchester United win
Model 61.9% vs market 58.3%, edge +3.7pp.
Best available odds: 1.63 at duelbits · odds value +1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Manchester United win is 1.63 with duelbits. The model has it at 61.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 58.3% (+3.7pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T04:03:26.359Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Tottenham Hotspur win
Model 16.6% vs market 19.9%, edge -3.3pp.
Best available odds: 4.9 at roobet · odds value -19%. stake 4.8 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Tottenham Hotspur win is 4.90 with roobet. The model has it at 16.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 19.9% (-3.3pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T04:03:26.359Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 21.5% vs market 21.9%, edge -0.4pp.
Best available odds: 4.4 at stake · odds value -5%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.40 with stake. The model has it at 21.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 21.9% (-0.4pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T04:03:26.359Z.
| Source | Manchester United | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 61.9% | 21.5% | 16.6% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave) | 58.3% | 21.9% | 19.9% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 59.7% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 04:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Manchester United | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.61 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.6 | 4.25 | 4.7 |
| roobet | 1.61 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| vave | 1.62 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.63 | 4.25 | 4.75 |
| ★ Best | 1.63 duelbits | 4.4 stake | 4.9 roobet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Manchester United 62% / Draw 21% / Tottenham Hotspur 17%; expected goals 1.98-0.92; BTTS 52%; blended best estimate 59.7%/21.8%/18.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T04:03:26.359Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Manchester United win: 62%
- Draw: 21%
- Tottenham Hotspur win: 17%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.98 - 0.92
- Over 2.5: 55%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
Manchester United Elo 1811 · Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1621
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Manchester United clear favourites at 62% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at Old Trafford — Manchester United 62%, the draw 21%, Tottenham Hotspur 17%. A clear Elo edge to Manchester United (1811 vs 1621), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Manchester United are favoured at 62%. Manchester United 62% / Draw 21% / Tottenham Hotspur 17%.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave imply 58.3% Manchester United win, 21.9% draw, 19.9% Tottenham Hotspur win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 59.7% / 21.8% / 18.5%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T04:03:26.359Z.
Will Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.