Manchester United vs Sunderland Prediction

Dec 30, 07:30 PM UTC · Matchweek 18 · Old Trafford

Match Status

Kickoff 19:30 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester United to win at 59%. Overall probabilities: Manchester United 59%, draw 23%, Sunderland 18%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 59%

Manchester United vs Sunderland prediction: 59% / 23% / 18% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester United
model top outcome · 59%

1-0
model score forecast

54%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Manchester United 59% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 18%; expected goals 1.90-0.96; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Manchester United win: 59%
Draw: 23%
Sunderland win: 18%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.90 - 0.96
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Manchester United Elo 1811 · Sunderland Elo 1648

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs Manchester United clear favourites at 59% in this Matchweek 18 fixture at Old Trafford — Manchester United 59%, the draw 23%, Sunderland 18%. A clear Elo edge to Manchester United (1811 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Manchester United vs Sunderland?

Manchester United are favoured at 59%. Manchester United 59% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 18%.

What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Manchester United vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.