Manchester United vs Sunderland Prediction

Dec 30, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 18 · Old Trafford

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester United to win at 63%. Overall probabilities: Manchester United 63%, draw 21%, Sunderland 16%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 63%

Manchester United vs Sunderland prediction: 63% / 21% / 16% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester United
model top outcome · 63%

2-0
model score forecast

56%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Manchester United 63% / Draw 21% / Sunderland 16%; expected goals 2.01-0.91; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Manchester United win: 63%
Draw: 21%
Sunderland win: 16%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.01 - 0.91
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams to score: 52%

Model Ratings

Manchester United Elo 1847 · Sunderland Elo 1649

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs Manchester United clear favourites at 63% in this Matchweek 18 fixture at Old Trafford — Manchester United 63%, the draw 21%, Sunderland 16%. A clear Elo edge to Manchester United (1847 vs 1649), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Manchester United vs Sunderland?

Manchester United are favoured at 63%. Manchester United 63% / Draw 21% / Sunderland 16%.

What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Manchester United vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.