FootyTips 
Manchester United vs Manchester City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 4 · Old Trafford
Match Status
Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Manchester City to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: Manchester United 28%, draw 25%, Manchester City 47%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%
model top outcome · 47%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Manchester United 28% / Draw 25% / Manchester City 47%; expected goals 1.16-1.58; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 29.7%/25.4%/44.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City. Model pick: Manchester City. Actual result: Manchester City.
Brier contribution: 0.4242 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Manchester United win: 28%
- Draw: 25%
- Manchester City win: 47%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.16 - 1.58
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Manchester United Elo 1811 · Manchester City Elo 1978
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-13. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Manchester City clear favourites at 47% in this Matchweek 4 fixture at Old Trafford — Manchester United 28%, the draw 25%, Manchester City 47%. A clear Elo edge to Manchester City (1978 vs 1811), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Manchester City are favoured at 47%. Manchester United 28% / Draw 25% / Manchester City 47%.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Manchester United vs Manchester City?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 31.0% Manchester United win, 25.4% draw, 43.6% Manchester City win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 29.7% / 25.4% / 44.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Manchester United vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.