Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction

Nov 7, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 10 · Old Trafford

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester United to win at 49%. Overall probabilities: Manchester United 49%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 26%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 49%

Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction: 49% / 25% / 26% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester United
model top outcome · 49%

1-0
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Manchester United 49% / Draw 25% / Aston Villa 26%; expected goals 1.62-1.13; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Manchester United win: 49%
Draw: 25%
Aston Villa win: 26%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.62 - 1.13
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Manchester United Elo 1811 · Aston Villa Elo 1748

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs Manchester United clear favourites at 49% in this Matchweek 10 fixture at Old Trafford — Manchester United 49%, the draw 25%, Aston Villa 26%. A modest Elo edge to Manchester United (1811 vs 1748), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Manchester United are favoured at 49%. Manchester United 49% / Draw 25% / Aston Villa 26%.

What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Manchester United vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.