Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction

Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 27 · Old Trafford

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 45%. Overall probabilities: Manchester United 29%, draw 26%, Arsenal 45%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 45%

Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction: 29% / 26% / 45% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 45%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Manchester United 29% / Draw 26% / Arsenal 45%; expected goals 1.18-1.54; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/manchester-united-vs-arsenal-2027-02-27-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/manchester-united-vs-arsenal-2027-02-27.png" alt="Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Win Probability

Manchester United win: 29%
Draw: 26%
Arsenal win: 45%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.18 - 1.54
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Manchester United Elo 1847 · Arsenal Elo 1979

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 45% in this Matchweek 27 fixture at Old Trafford — Manchester United 29%, the draw 26%, Arsenal 45%. A clear Elo edge to Arsenal (1979 vs 1847), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Manchester United vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favoured at 45%. Manchester United 29% / Draw 26% / Arsenal 45%.

What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Arsenal?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Manchester United vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.