Manchester City vs Leeds United Prediction

Dec 2, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 13 · Etihad Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Manchester City to win at 66%. Overall probabilities: Manchester City 66%, draw 20%, Leeds United 14%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 66%

Manchester City vs Leeds United prediction: 66% / 20% / 14% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester City
model top outcome · 66%

2-0
model score forecast

57%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Manchester City 66% / Draw 20% / Leeds United 14%; expected goals 2.10-0.87; BTTS 51%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/manchester-city-vs-leeds-united-2026-12-02-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/manchester-city-vs-leeds-united-2026-12-02.png" alt="Manchester City vs Leeds United prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Win Probability

Manchester City win: 66%
Draw: 20%
Leeds United win: 14%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.10 - 0.87
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams to score: 51%

Model Ratings

Manchester City Elo 1950 · Leeds United Elo 1724

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Manchester City clear favourites at 66% in this Matchweek 13 fixture at Etihad Stadium — Manchester City 66%, the draw 20%, Leeds United 14%. A big Elo gap in Manchester City's favour (1950 vs 1724), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 51%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Manchester City vs Leeds United?

Manchester City are favoured at 66%. Manchester City 66% / Draw 20% / Leeds United 14%.

What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Manchester City vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.