FootyTips 
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Etihad Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Manchester City to win at 81%. Overall probabilities: Manchester City 81%, draw 13%, Ipswich Town 6%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 81%
model top outcome · 81%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Manchester City win
Model 81.0% vs market 78.8%, edge +2.2pp.
Best available odds: 1.2 at roobet · odds value -3%. duelbits 1.19 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Manchester City win is 1.20 with roobet. The model has it at 81.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 78.8% (+2.2pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Ipswich Town win
Model 6.2% vs market 7.8%, edge -1.6pp.
Best available odds: 13 at stake · odds value -19%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Ipswich Town win is 13.00 with stake. The model has it at 6.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 7.8% (-1.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 12.8% vs market 13.4%, edge -0.6pp.
Best available odds: 7.6 at stake · odds value -3%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 7.60 with stake. The model has it at 12.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 13.4% (-0.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Manchester City | Draw | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 81.0% | 12.8% | 6.2% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave) | 78.8% | 13.4% | 7.8% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 79.7% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Manchester City | Draw | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.18 | 7.6 | 13 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.17 | 6.5 | 11 |
| roobet | 1.2 | 7 | 12 |
| vave | 1.18 | 7 | 12 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.19 | 7.2 | 12.5 |
| ★ Best | 1.2 roobet | 7.6 stake | 13 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Manchester City 81% / Draw 13% / Ipswich Town 6%; expected goals 2.76-0.66; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 79.7%/13.2%/7.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Manchester City win: 81%
- Draw: 13%
- Ipswich Town win: 6%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.76 - 0.66
- Over 2.5: 66%
- Both teams to score: 45%
Model Ratings
Manchester City Elo 1978 · Ipswich Town Elo 1580
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Manchester City clear favourites at 81% in this Matchweek 7 fixture at Etihad Stadium — Manchester City 81%, the draw 13%, Ipswich Town 6%. A big Elo gap in Manchester City's favour (1978 vs 1580), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Manchester City vs Ipswich Town?
Manchester City are favoured at 81%. Manchester City 81% / Draw 13% / Ipswich Town 6%.
What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Ipswich Town?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Manchester City vs Ipswich Town?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave imply 78.8% Manchester City win, 13.4% draw, 7.8% Ipswich Town win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 79.7% / 13.2% / 7.1%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Manchester City vs Ipswich Town have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Ipswich Town?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.