Liverpool vs Newcastle United Prediction

Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 31 · Anfield

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Liverpool to win at 52%. Overall probabilities: Liverpool 52%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 24%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 52%

Liverpool vs Newcastle United prediction: 52% / 24% / 24% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Liverpool
model top outcome · 52%

1-0
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Liverpool 52% / Draw 24% / Newcastle United 24%; expected goals 1.69-1.08; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 46.3%/25.0%/28.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Liverpool win: 52%
Draw: 24%
Newcastle United win: 24%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.69 - 1.08
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Liverpool Elo 1829 · Newcastle United Elo 1737

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs Liverpool clear favourites at 52% in this Matchweek 31 fixture at Anfield — Liverpool 52%, the draw 24%, Newcastle United 24%. A clear Elo edge to Liverpool (1829 vs 1737), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

Liverpool are favoured at 52%. Liverpool 52% / Draw 24% / Newcastle United 24%.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from cloudbet, duelbits imply 42.7% Liverpool win, 25.1% draw, 32.2% Newcastle United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 46.3% / 25.0% / 28.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Liverpool vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.