FootyTips 
Liverpool vs Newcastle United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 31 · Anfield
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Liverpool to win at 56%. Overall probabilities: Liverpool 56%, draw 23%, Newcastle United 21%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 56%
model top outcome · 56%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Liverpool 56% / Draw 23% / Newcastle United 21%; expected goals 1.80-1.01; BTTS 53%; blended best estimate 48.0%/24.7%/27.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Liverpool win: 56%
- Draw: 23%
- Newcastle United win: 21%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.80 - 1.01
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Liverpool Elo 1838 · Newcastle United Elo 1707
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Liverpool clear favourites at 56% in this Matchweek 31 fixture at Anfield — Liverpool 56%, the draw 23%, Newcastle United 21%. A clear Elo edge to Liverpool (1838 vs 1707), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
Liverpool are favoured at 56%. Liverpool 56% / Draw 23% / Newcastle United 21%.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from cloudbet, duelbits imply 42.7% Liverpool win, 25.1% draw, 32.2% Newcastle United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 48.0% / 24.7% / 27.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Liverpool vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.