FootyTips 
Liverpool vs Manchester City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Anfield
Match Status
Kickoff 15:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Manchester City to win at 45%. Overall probabilities: Liverpool 29%, draw 26%, Manchester City 45%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 45%
model top outcome · 45%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Manchester City win
Model 45.6% vs market 43.4%, edge +2.2pp.
Best available odds: 2.19 at stake · odds value -0%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Manchester City win is 2.19 with stake. The model has it at 45.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 43.4% (+2.2pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-14T00:03:29.328Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Liverpool win
Model 28.8% vs market 30.7%, edge -1.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.1 at stake · odds value -11%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Liverpool win is 3.10 with stake. The model has it at 28.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 30.7% (-1.9pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-14T00:03:29.328Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 25.7% vs market 25.9%, edge -0.3pp.
Best available odds: 3.7 at stake · odds value -5%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.70 with stake. The model has it at 25.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 25.9% (-0.3pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-14T00:03:29.328Z.
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 28.8% | 25.7% | 45.6% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 30.7% | 25.9% | 43.4% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 29.9% | 25.8% | 44.3% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 14, 12:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.19 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.14 |
| vave | 3.05 | 3.6 | 2.16 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.18 |
| ★ Best | 3.1 stake | 3.7 stake | 2.19 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Liverpool 29% / Draw 26% / Manchester City 45%; expected goals 1.18-1.55; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 29.9%/25.8%/44.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-14T00:03:29.328Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Liverpool win: 29%
- Draw: 26%
- Manchester City win: 45%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.18 - 1.55
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Liverpool Elo 1833 · Manchester City Elo 1968
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-14. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has Manchester City clear favourites at 45% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at Anfield — Liverpool 29%, the draw 26%, Manchester City 45%. A clear Elo edge to Manchester City (1968 vs 1833), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Manchester City are favoured at 45%. Liverpool 29% / Draw 26% / Manchester City 45%.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Liverpool vs Manchester City?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 30.7% Liverpool win, 25.9% draw, 43.4% Manchester City win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 29.9% / 25.8% / 44.3%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-14T00:03:29.328Z.
Will Liverpool vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.