Liverpool vs Aston Villa Prediction

Mar 3, 08:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 28 · Anfield

Match Status

Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Liverpool to win at 45%. Overall probabilities: Liverpool 45%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 29%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 45%

Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction: 45% / 26% / 29% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Liverpool
model top outcome · 45%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Liverpool 45% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 29%; expected goals 1.54-1.19; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Liverpool win: 45%
Draw: 26%
Aston Villa win: 29%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.54 - 1.19
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Liverpool Elo 1829 · Aston Villa Elo 1798

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Liverpool clear favourites at 45% in this Matchweek 28 fixture at Anfield — Liverpool 45%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 29%. A modest Elo edge to Liverpool (1829 vs 1798), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Liverpool vs Aston Villa?

Liverpool are favoured at 45%. Liverpool 45% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 29%.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Liverpool vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.