FootyTips 
Liverpool vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 9 · Anfield
Match Status
Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Liverpool 28%, draw 26%, Arsenal 46%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%
model top outcome · 46%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Oct 18, 08:02 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.35 | 3.6 | 2.07 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.25 | 3.5 | 2.06 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.3 | 3.55 | 2.12 |
| ★ Best | 3.35 stake | 3.6 stake | 2.12 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Liverpool 28% / Draw 26% / Arsenal 46%; expected goals 1.17-1.55; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 28.5%/26.3%/45.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal. Model pick: Arsenal. Actual result: Arsenal.
Brier contribution: 0.4396 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Liverpool win: 28%
- Draw: 26%
- Arsenal win: 46%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.17 - 1.55
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Liverpool Elo 1838 · Arsenal Elo 1997
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Arsenal clear favourites at 46% in this Matchweek 9 fixture at Anfield — Liverpool 28%, the draw 26%, Arsenal 46%. A clear Elo edge to Arsenal (1997 vs 1838), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 46%. Liverpool 28% / Draw 26% / Arsenal 46%.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Liverpool vs Arsenal?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 28.5% Liverpool win, 26.8% draw, 44.7% Arsenal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 28.5% / 26.3% / 45.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Liverpool vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.