Leeds United vs Sunderland Prediction

May 23, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 37 · Elland Road

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Leeds United to win at 55%. Overall probabilities: Leeds United 55%, draw 24%, Sunderland 21%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 55%

Leeds United vs Sunderland prediction: 55% / 24% / 21% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Leeds United
model top outcome · 55%

1-0
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Leeds United 55% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 21%; expected goals 1.79-1.02; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Leeds United win: 55%
Draw: 24%
Sunderland win: 21%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.79 - 1.02
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Leeds United Elo 1735 · Sunderland Elo 1608

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Leeds United clear favourites at 55% in this Matchweek 37 fixture at Elland Road — Leeds United 55%, the draw 24%, Sunderland 21%. A clear Elo edge to Leeds United (1735 vs 1608), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Leeds United are favoured at 55%. Leeds United 55% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 21%.

What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Leeds United vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.