Leeds United vs Manchester United Prediction

Oct 18, 01:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 7 · Elland Road

Match Status

Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United · FT · Miss

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Manchester United narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: Leeds United 36%, draw 26%, Manchester United 38%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%

Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Manchester United
model top outcome · 38%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-10-16
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Leeds United 36% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 38%; expected goals 1.33-1.37; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 38.7%/26.7%/34.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United. Model pick: Manchester United. Actual result: Draw.

Brier contribution: 0.8149 · settled 2026-11-06

Win Probability

Leeds United win: 36%
Draw: 26%
Manchester United win: 38%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.33 - 1.37
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Leeds United Elo 1735 · Manchester United Elo 1760

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-16. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 7 fixture at Elland Road: Leeds United 36%, the draw 26%, Manchester United 38%. With a modest Elo edge to Manchester United (1760 vs 1735), Manchester United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Manchester United are favoured at 38%. Leeds United 36% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 38%.

What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Leeds United vs Manchester United?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 40.5% Leeds United win, 26.9% draw, 32.6% Manchester United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 38.7% / 26.7% / 34.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Leeds United vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.