FootyTips 
Leeds United vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 33 · Elland Road
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Liverpool narrowly favoured (42%). Overall probabilities: Leeds United 32%, draw 26%, Liverpool 42%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 42%
model top outcome · 42%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Leeds United 32% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 42%; expected goals 1.24-1.47; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Leeds United win: 32%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 42%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.24 - 1.47
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Leeds United Elo 1724 · Liverpool Elo 1829
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 33 fixture at Elland Road: Leeds United 32%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 42%. With a clear Elo edge to Liverpool (1829 vs 1724), Liverpool are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Leeds United vs Liverpool?
Liverpool are favoured at 42%. Leeds United 32% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 42%.
What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Leeds United vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.