FootyTips 
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · Elland Road
Match Status
Kickoff 13:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Leeds United to win at 51%. Overall probabilities: Leeds United 51%, draw 25%, Crystal Palace 24%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 51%
model top outcome · 51%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Leeds United win
Model 50.9% vs market 56.0%, edge -5.1pp.
Best available odds: 1.74 at vave · odds value -11%. duelbits 1.72 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Leeds United win is 1.74 with vave. The model has it at 50.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 56.0% (-5.1pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Crystal Palace win
Model 24.4% vs market 20.0%, edge +4.4pp.
Best available odds: 4.85 at cloudbet · odds value +19%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Crystal Palace win is 4.85 with cloudbet. The model has it at 24.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 20.0% (+4.4pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 24.7% vs market 24.1%, edge +0.6pp.
Best available odds: 4.1 at vave · odds value +1%. duelbits 4.05 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.10 with vave. The model has it at 24.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.1% (+0.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Leeds United | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 50.9% | 24.7% | 24.4% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave) | 56.0% | 24.1% | 20.0% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 53.9% | 24.4% | 21.7% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Leeds United | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.7 | 4 | 4.7 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.85 |
| roobet | 1.68 | 3.9 | 4.7 |
| vave | 1.74 | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.72 | 4.05 | 4.7 |
| ★ Best | 1.74 vave | 4.1 vave | 4.85 cloudbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Leeds United 51% / Draw 25% / Crystal Palace 24%; expected goals 1.68-1.09; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 53.9%/24.4%/21.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Leeds United win: 51%
- Draw: 25%
- Crystal Palace win: 24%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.68 - 1.09
- Over 2.5: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Leeds United Elo 1757 · Crystal Palace Elo 1672
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Leeds United clear favourites at 51% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at Elland Road — Leeds United 51%, the draw 25%, Crystal Palace 24%. A clear Elo edge to Leeds United (1757 vs 1672), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds United are favoured at 51%. Leeds United 51% / Draw 25% / Crystal Palace 24%.
What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave imply 56.0% Leeds United win, 24.1% draw, 20.0% Crystal Palace win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 53.9% / 24.4% / 21.7%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Leeds United vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.