FootyTips 
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · Elland Road
Match Status
Kickoff 13:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Leeds United to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: Leeds United 47%, draw 25%, Crystal Palace 28%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%
model top outcome · 47%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 25.4% vs market 27.5%, edge -2.1pp.
Best available odds: 3.45 at stake · odds value -12%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.45 with stake. The model has it at 25.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.5% (-2.1pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Leeds United win
Model 47.2% vs market 45.4%, edge +1.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.09 at stake · odds value -1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Leeds United win is 2.09 with stake. The model has it at 47.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 45.4% (+1.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Crystal Palace win
Model 27.4% vs market 27.1%, edge +0.3pp.
Best available odds: 3.5 at stake · odds value -4%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Crystal Palace win is 3.50 with stake. The model has it at 27.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.1% (+0.3pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
| Source | Leeds United | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 47.2% | 25.4% | 27.4% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave) | 45.4% | 27.5% | 27.1% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 46.1% | 26.7% | 27.2% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 12, 12:03 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Leeds United | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.09 | 3.45 | 3.5 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.07 | 3.35 | 3.5 |
| roobet | 2.06 | 3.4 | 3.45 |
| vave | 2.06 | 3.4 | 3.45 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.08 | 3.45 | 3.5 |
| ★ Best | 2.09 stake | 3.45 stake | 3.5 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Leeds United 47% / Draw 25% / Crystal Palace 28%; expected goals 1.58-1.15; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 46.1%/26.7%/27.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Leeds United win: 47%
- Draw: 25%
- Crystal Palace win: 28%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.58 - 1.15
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Leeds United Elo 1741 · Crystal Palace Elo 1691
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Leeds United clear favourites at 47% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at Elland Road — Leeds United 47%, the draw 25%, Crystal Palace 28%. A modest Elo edge to Leeds United (1741 vs 1691), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds United are favoured at 47%. Leeds United 47% / Draw 25% / Crystal Palace 28%.
What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave imply 45.4% Leeds United win, 27.5% draw, 27.1% Crystal Palace win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 46.1% / 26.7% / 27.2%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
Will Leeds United vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.