Leeds United vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Sep 20, 01:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 5 · Elland Road

Match Status

Leeds United 0-0 Crystal Palace · FT · Miss

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Leeds United to win at 51%. Overall probabilities: Leeds United 51%, draw 25%, Crystal Palace 24%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 51%

Leeds United 0-0 Crystal Palace result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Leeds United
model top outcome · 51%

1-0
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Leeds United 51% / Draw 25% / Crystal Palace 24%; expected goals 1.68-1.09; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 54.0%/24.5%/21.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Leeds United 0-0 Crystal Palace. Model pick: Leeds United. Actual result: Draw.

Brier contribution: 0.8855 · settled 2026-11-06

Win Probability

Leeds United win: 51%
Draw: 25%
Crystal Palace win: 24%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.68 - 1.09
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Leeds United Elo 1735 · Crystal Palace Elo 1648

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Leeds United clear favourites at 51% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at Elland Road — Leeds United 51%, the draw 25%, Crystal Palace 24%. A clear Elo edge to Leeds United (1735 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

Leeds United are favoured at 51%. Leeds United 51% / Draw 25% / Crystal Palace 24%.

What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 56.0% Leeds United win, 24.4% draw, 19.6% Crystal Palace win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 54.0% / 24.5% / 21.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Leeds United vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.