Leeds United vs Aston Villa Prediction

Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 26 · Elland Road

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Aston Villa narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Leeds United 35%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 39%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%

Leeds United vs Aston Villa prediction: 35% / 26% / 39% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 39%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Leeds United 35% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 39%; expected goals 1.30-1.40; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Leeds United win: 35%
Draw: 26%
Aston Villa win: 39%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.30 - 1.40
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Leeds United Elo 1724 · Aston Villa Elo 1798

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 26 fixture at Elland Road: Leeds United 35%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 39%. With a modest Elo edge to Aston Villa (1798 vs 1724), Aston Villa are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Leeds United vs Aston Villa?

Aston Villa are favoured at 39%. Leeds United 35% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 39%.

What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Leeds United vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.