Leeds United vs Arsenal Prediction

May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 35 · Elland Road

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: Leeds United 19%, draw 23%, Arsenal 58%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%

Leeds United vs Arsenal prediction: 19% / 23% / 58% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 58%

0-1
model score forecast

54%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Leeds United 19% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 58%; expected goals 0.97-1.87; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Leeds United win: 19%
Draw: 23%
Arsenal win: 58%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.97 - 1.87
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Leeds United Elo 1724 · Arsenal Elo 1979

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 58% in this Matchweek 35 fixture at Elland Road — Leeds United 19%, the draw 23%, Arsenal 58%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1979 vs 1724), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Leeds United vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favoured at 58%. Leeds United 19% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 58%.

What is the predicted score for Leeds United vs Arsenal?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Leeds United vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds United vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.