FootyTips 
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · Portman Road
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Sunderland narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Ipswich Town 34%, draw 26%, Sunderland 40%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%
model top outcome · 40%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Sunderland win
Model 40.2% vs market 36.4%, edge +3.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.65 at stake · odds value +6%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Sunderland win is 2.65 with stake. The model has it at 40.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 36.4% (+3.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.2% vs market 28.7%, edge -2.5pp.
Best available odds: 3.35 at stake · odds value -12%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.35 with stake. The model has it at 26.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 28.7% (-2.5pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Ipswich Town win
Model 33.6% vs market 34.9%, edge -1.3pp.
Best available odds: 2.75 at stake · odds value -8%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Ipswich Town win is 2.75 with stake. The model has it at 33.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 34.9% (-1.3pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
| Source | Ipswich Town | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 33.6% | 26.2% | 40.2% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 34.9% | 28.7% | 36.4% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 34.4% | 27.7% | 37.9% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 1, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Ipswich Town | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.7 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| vave | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| ★ Best | 2.75 stake | 3.35 stake | 2.65 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Ipswich Town 34% / Draw 26% / Sunderland 40%; expected goals 1.28-1.42; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 34.4%/27.7%/37.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Ipswich Town win: 34%
- Draw: 26%
- Sunderland win: 40%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.28 - 1.42
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Ipswich Town Elo 1566 · Sunderland Elo 1649
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at Portman Road: Ipswich Town 34%, the draw 26%, Sunderland 40%. With a clear Elo edge to Sunderland (1649 vs 1566), Sunderland are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Sunderland are favoured at 40%. Ipswich Town 34% / Draw 26% / Sunderland 40%.
What is the predicted score for Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 34.9% Ipswich Town win, 28.7% draw, 36.4% Sunderland win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 34.4% / 27.7% / 37.9%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
Will Ipswich Town vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.