FootyTips 
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · Portman Road
Match Status
Ipswich Town 2-1 Sunderland · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Sunderland narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Ipswich Town 34%, draw 26%, Sunderland 40%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%
model top outcome · 40%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Ipswich Town 34% / Draw 26% / Sunderland 40%; expected goals 1.28-1.42; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 34.4%/27.9%/37.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Ipswich Town 2-1 Sunderland. Model pick: Sunderland. Actual result: Ipswich Town.
Brier contribution: 0.6708 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Ipswich Town win: 34%
- Draw: 26%
- Sunderland win: 40%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.28 - 1.42
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Ipswich Town Elo 1580 · Sunderland Elo 1648
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-22. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at Portman Road: Ipswich Town 34%, the draw 26%, Sunderland 40%. With a modest Elo edge to Sunderland (1648 vs 1580), Sunderland are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Sunderland are favoured at 40%. Ipswich Town 34% / Draw 26% / Sunderland 40%.
What is the predicted score for Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 35.0% Ipswich Town win, 29.1% draw, 35.9% Sunderland win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 34.4% / 27.9% / 37.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Ipswich Town vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Sunderland?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.