FootyTips 
Ipswich Town vs Fulham 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Portman Road
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Fulham narrowly favoured (43%). Overall probabilities: Ipswich Town 31%, draw 26%, Fulham 43%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 43%
model top outcome · 43%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Fulham win
Model 42.9% vs market 37.8%, edge +5.0pp.
Best available odds: 2.5 at vave · odds value +7%. duelbits 2.5 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Fulham win is 2.50 with vave. The model has it at 42.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 37.8% (+5.0pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Ipswich Town win
Model 31.1% vs market 35.4%, edge -4.3pp.
Best available odds: 2.7 at stake · odds value -16%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Ipswich Town win is 2.70 with stake. The model has it at 31.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 35.4% (-4.3pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.0% vs market 26.6%, edge -0.6pp.
Best available odds: 3.55 at stake · odds value -8%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.55 with stake. The model has it at 26.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.6% (-0.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Ipswich Town | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 31.1% | 26.0% | 42.9% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 35.4% | 26.6% | 37.8% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 33.7% | 26.4% | 39.9% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Ipswich Town | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.7 | 3.55 | 2.46 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.6 | 3.55 | 2.45 |
| vave | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.5 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.5 |
| ★ Best | 2.7 stake | 3.55 stake | 2.5 vave |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Ipswich Town 31% / Draw 26% / Fulham 43%; expected goals 1.23-1.48; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 33.7%/26.4%/39.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Ipswich Town win: 31%
- Draw: 26%
- Fulham win: 43%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.23 - 1.48
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Ipswich Town Elo 1580 · Fulham Elo 1689
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 6 fixture at Portman Road: Ipswich Town 31%, the draw 26%, Fulham 43%. With a clear Elo edge to Fulham (1689 vs 1580), Fulham are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Ipswich Town vs Fulham?
Fulham are favoured at 43%. Ipswich Town 31% / Draw 26% / Fulham 43%.
What is the predicted score for Ipswich Town vs Fulham?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Ipswich Town vs Fulham?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 35.4% Ipswich Town win, 26.6% draw, 37.8% Fulham win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 33.7% / 26.4% / 39.9%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Ipswich Town vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Fulham?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.