Hull City vs Newcastle United Prediction

May 30, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 38 · The MKM Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Newcastle United to win at 53%. Overall probabilities: Hull City 23%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 53%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 53%

Hull City vs Newcastle United prediction: 23% / 24% / 53% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Newcastle United
model top outcome · 53%

0-1
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Hull City 23% / Draw 24% / Newcastle United 53%; expected goals 1.05-1.73; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Hull City win: 23%
Draw: 24%
Newcastle United win: 53%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.05 - 1.73
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Hull City Elo 1501 · Newcastle United Elo 1707

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates Newcastle United clear favourites at 53% in this Matchweek 38 fixture at The MKM Stadium — Hull City 23%, the draw 24%, Newcastle United 53%. A big Elo gap in Newcastle United's favour (1707 vs 1501), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Hull City vs Newcastle United?

Newcastle United are favoured at 53%. Hull City 23% / Draw 24% / Newcastle United 53%.

What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Hull City vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hull City vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.