FootyTips 
Hull City vs Manchester United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · The MKM Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 11:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Manchester United to win at 74%. Overall probabilities: Hull City 10%, draw 16%, Manchester United 74%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 74%
model top outcome · 74%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Manchester United win
Model 74.0% vs market 65.1%, edge +8.9pp.
Best available odds: 1.47 at stake · odds value +9%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Manchester United win is 1.47 with stake. The model has it at 74.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 65.1% (+8.9pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 16.4% vs market 21.4%, edge -5.0pp.
Best available odds: 4.7 at stake · odds value -23%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.70 with stake. The model has it at 16.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 21.4% (-5.0pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Hull City win
Model 9.6% vs market 13.5%, edge -3.9pp.
Best available odds: 7 at roobet · odds value -33%. cloudbet 6.95 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Hull City win is 7.00 with roobet. The model has it at 9.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 13.5% (-3.9pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
| Source | Hull City | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 9.6% | 16.4% | 74.0% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave) | 13.5% | 21.4% | 65.1% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 11.8% | 19.4% | 68.8% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 1, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Hull City | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.47 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 6.95 | 4.25 | 1.44 |
| roobet | 7 | 4.4 | 1.45 |
| vave | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.44 |
| duelbits ↗ | 6.7 | 4.55 | 1.45 |
| ★ Best | 7 roobet | 4.7 stake | 1.47 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Hull City 10% / Draw 16% / Manchester United 74%; expected goals 0.75-2.42; BTTS 48%; blended best estimate 11.8%/19.4%/68.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Hull City win: 10%
- Draw: 16%
- Manchester United win: 74%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.75 - 2.42
- Over 2.5: 61%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
Hull City Elo 1433 · Manchester United Elo 1847
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Manchester United clear favourites at 74% in this Matchweek 1 fixture at The MKM Stadium — Hull City 10%, the draw 16%, Manchester United 74%. A big Elo gap in Manchester United's favour (1847 vs 1433), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 48%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Hull City vs Manchester United?
Manchester United are favoured at 74%. Hull City 10% / Draw 16% / Manchester United 74%.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Manchester United?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Hull City vs Manchester United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave imply 13.5% Hull City win, 21.4% draw, 65.1% Manchester United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 11.8% / 19.4% / 68.8%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
Will Hull City vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Manchester United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.