Hull City vs Leeds United Prediction

Dec 29, 07:30 PM UTC · Matchweek 18 · The MKM Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 19:30 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Leeds United to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: Hull City 19%, draw 23%, Leeds United 58%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%

Hull City vs Leeds United prediction: 19% / 23% / 58% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Leeds United
model top outcome · 58%

0-1
model score forecast

54%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Hull City 19% / Draw 23% / Leeds United 58%; expected goals 0.97-1.88; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/hull-city-vs-leeds-united-2026-12-29-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/hull-city-vs-leeds-united-2026-12-29.png" alt="Hull City vs Leeds United prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
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Win Probability

Hull City win: 19%
Draw: 23%
Leeds United win: 58%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.97 - 1.88
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Hull City Elo 1499 · Leeds United Elo 1757

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Leeds United clear favourites at 58% in this Matchweek 18 fixture at The MKM Stadium — Hull City 19%, the draw 23%, Leeds United 58%. A big Elo gap in Leeds United's favour (1757 vs 1499), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Hull City vs Leeds United?

Leeds United are favoured at 58%. Hull City 19% / Draw 23% / Leeds United 58%.

What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Hull City vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hull City vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.