FootyTips 
Hull City vs Everton 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · The MKM Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 13:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Everton to win at 55%. Overall probabilities: Hull City 21%, draw 24%, Everton 55%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 55%
model top outcome · 55%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Everton win
Model 54.8% vs market 45.2%, edge +9.6pp.
Best available odds: 2.11 at duelbits · odds value +16%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Everton win is 2.11 with duelbits. The model has it at 54.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 45.2% (+9.6pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 23.7% vs market 28.8%, edge -5.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.3 at stake · odds value -22%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.30 with stake. The model has it at 23.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 28.8% (-5.0pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Hull City win
Model 21.5% vs market 26.0%, edge -4.6pp.
Best available odds: 3.7 at cloudbet · odds value -21%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Hull City win is 3.70 with cloudbet. The model has it at 21.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.0% (-4.6pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Hull City | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 21.5% | 23.7% | 54.8% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 26.0% | 28.8% | 45.2% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 24.2% | 26.8% | 49.0% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Hull City | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.07 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.7 | 3.25 | 2.03 |
| vave | 3.5 | 3.25 | 2.1 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.55 | 3.25 | 2.11 |
| ★ Best | 3.7 cloudbet | 3.3 stake | 2.11 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Hull City 21% / Draw 24% / Everton 55%; expected goals 1.03-1.78; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 24.2%/26.8%/49.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Hull City win: 21%
- Draw: 24%
- Everton win: 55%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.03 - 1.78
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Hull City Elo 1499 · Everton Elo 1721
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has Everton clear favourites at 55% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at The MKM Stadium — Hull City 21%, the draw 24%, Everton 55%. A big Elo gap in Everton's favour (1721 vs 1499), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Hull City vs Everton?
Everton are favoured at 55%. Hull City 21% / Draw 24% / Everton 55%.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Everton?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Hull City vs Everton?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 26.0% Hull City win, 28.8% draw, 45.2% Everton win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 24.2% / 26.8% / 49.0%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Hull City vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Everton?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.