FootyTips 
Hull City vs Aston Villa 
Prediction
· Matchweek 3 · The MKM Stadium
Match Status
Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Aston Villa to win at 62%. Overall probabilities: Hull City 17%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 62%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 62%
model top outcome · 62%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Hull City 17% / Draw 21% / Aston Villa 62%; expected goals 0.92-1.98; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa. Model pick: Aston Villa. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 1.0237 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Hull City win: 17%
- Draw: 21%
- Aston Villa win: 62%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.92 - 1.98
- Over 2.5: 55%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
Hull City Elo 1499 · Aston Villa Elo 1748
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-05. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Aston Villa clear favourites at 62% in this Matchweek 3 fixture at The MKM Stadium — Hull City 17%, the draw 21%, Aston Villa 62%. A big Elo gap in Aston Villa's favour (1748 vs 1499), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa are favoured at 62%. Hull City 17% / Draw 21% / Aston Villa 62%.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Hull City vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.