FootyTips 
Hull City vs Aston Villa 
Prediction
· Matchweek 3 · The MKM Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 16:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Aston Villa to win at 69%. Overall probabilities: Hull City 12%, draw 19%, Aston Villa 69%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 69%
model top outcome · 69%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Hull City 12% / Draw 19% / Aston Villa 69%; expected goals 0.82-2.23; BTTS 50%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Hull City win: 12%
- Draw: 19%
- Aston Villa win: 69%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.82 - 2.23
- Over 2.5: 59%
- Both teams to score: 50%
Model Ratings
Hull City Elo 1433 · Aston Villa Elo 1798
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Aston Villa clear favourites at 69% in this Matchweek 3 fixture at The MKM Stadium — Hull City 12%, the draw 19%, Aston Villa 69%. A big Elo gap in Aston Villa's favour (1798 vs 1433), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 50%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa are favoured at 69%. Hull City 12% / Draw 19% / Aston Villa 69%.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Hull City vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.