FootyTips 
Fulham vs Manchester United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · Craven Cottage
Match Status
Kickoff 15:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Manchester United narrowly favoured (44%). Overall probabilities: Fulham 30%, draw 26%, Manchester United 44%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 44%
model top outcome · 44%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Manchester United win
Model 44.2% vs market 48.3%, edge -4.1pp.
Best available odds: 2 at duelbits · odds value -12%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Manchester United win is 2.00 with duelbits. The model has it at 44.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 48.3% (-4.1pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Fulham win
Model 29.9% vs market 26.9%, edge +3.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.6 at vave · odds value +8%. stake 3.55 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Fulham win is 3.60 with vave. The model has it at 29.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.9% (+3.0pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 25.8% vs market 24.7%, edge +1.1pp.
Best available odds: 4 at vave · odds value +3%. stake 3.9 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.00 with vave. The model has it at 25.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.7% (+1.1pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Fulham | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 29.9% | 25.8% | 44.2% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 26.9% | 24.7% | 48.3% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 28.1% | 25.2% | 46.7% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Fulham | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.55 | 3.9 | 1.96 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.55 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| vave | 3.6 | 4 | 1.99 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.55 | 3.9 | 2 |
| ★ Best | 3.6 vave | 4 vave | 2 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Fulham 30% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 44%; expected goals 1.20-1.51; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 28.1%/25.2%/46.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Fulham win: 30%
- Draw: 26%
- Manchester United win: 44%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.20 - 1.51
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Fulham Elo 1689 · Manchester United Elo 1811
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 5 fixture at Craven Cottage: Fulham 30%, the draw 26%, Manchester United 44%. With a clear Elo edge to Manchester United (1811 vs 1689), Manchester United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Fulham vs Manchester United?
Manchester United are favoured at 44%. Fulham 30% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 44%.
What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Fulham vs Manchester United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 26.9% Fulham win, 24.7% draw, 48.3% Manchester United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 28.1% / 25.2% / 46.7%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Fulham vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.