FootyTips 
Fulham vs Hull City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Craven Cottage
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Fulham to win at 62%. Overall probabilities: Fulham 62%, draw 21%, Hull City 17%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 62%
model top outcome · 62%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Hull City win
Model 16.6% vs market 15.0%, edge +1.6pp.
Best available odds: 6.6 at stake · odds value +9%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Hull City win is 6.60 with stake. The model has it at 16.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 15.0% (+1.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Fulham win
Model 61.9% vs market 62.8%, edge -0.9pp.
Best available odds: 1.49 at duelbits · odds value -8%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Fulham win is 1.49 with duelbits. The model has it at 61.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 62.8% (-0.9pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 21.5% vs market 22.1%, edge -0.6pp.
Best available odds: 4.4 at stake · odds value -5%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.40 with stake. The model has it at 21.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 22.1% (-0.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Fulham | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 61.9% | 21.5% | 16.6% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave) | 62.8% | 22.1% | 15.0% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 62.5% | 21.9% | 15.6% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Fulham | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.47 | 4.4 | 6.6 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.46 | 4.05 | 6 |
| vave | 1.48 | 4.2 | 6.2 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.49 | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| ★ Best | 1.49 duelbits | 4.4 stake | 6.6 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Fulham 62% / Draw 21% / Hull City 17%; expected goals 1.98-0.92; BTTS 52%; blended best estimate 62.5%/21.9%/15.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Fulham win: 62%
- Draw: 21%
- Hull City win: 17%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.98 - 0.92
- Over 2.5: 55%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
Fulham Elo 1689 · Hull City Elo 1499
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Fulham clear favourites at 62% in this Matchweek 7 fixture at Craven Cottage — Fulham 62%, the draw 21%, Hull City 17%. A clear Elo edge to Fulham (1689 vs 1499), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Fulham vs Hull City?
Fulham are favoured at 62%. Fulham 62% / Draw 21% / Hull City 17%.
What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Hull City?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Fulham vs Hull City?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave imply 62.8% Fulham win, 22.1% draw, 15.0% Hull City win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 62.5% / 21.9% / 15.6%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Fulham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Hull City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.