FootyTips 
Fulham vs Chelsea 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · Craven Cottage
Match Status
Fulham 2-3 Chelsea · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Fulham narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Fulham 40%, draw 26%, Chelsea 34%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%
model top outcome · 40%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Fulham 40% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 34%; expected goals 1.43-1.28; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 31.1%/25.8%/43.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Fulham 2-3 Chelsea. Model pick: Fulham. Actual result: Chelsea.
Brier contribution: 0.6729 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Fulham win: 40%
- Draw: 26%
- Chelsea win: 34%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.43 - 1.28
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Fulham Elo 1689 · Chelsea Elo 1751
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-24. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at Craven Cottage: Fulham 40%, the draw 26%, Chelsea 34%. With a modest Elo edge to Chelsea (1751 vs 1689), Fulham are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Fulham vs Chelsea?
Fulham are favoured at 40%. Fulham 40% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 34%.
What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Chelsea?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Fulham vs Chelsea?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 25.4% Fulham win, 24.9% draw, 49.6% Chelsea win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 31.1% / 25.8% / 43.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Fulham vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Chelsea?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.