FootyTips 
Fulham vs Chelsea 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · Craven Cottage
Match Status
Kickoff 19:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Fulham narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Fulham 40%, draw 26%, Chelsea 34%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%
model top outcome · 40%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Chelsea win
Model 33.5% vs market 43.5%, edge -9.9pp.
Best available odds: 2.23 at stake · odds value -25%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Chelsea win is 2.23 with stake. The model has it at 33.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 43.5% (-9.9pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Fulham win
Model 40.3% vs market 30.8%, edge +9.5pp.
Best available odds: 3.15 at stake · odds value +27%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Fulham win is 3.15 with stake. The model has it at 40.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 30.8% (+9.5pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.2% vs market 25.7%, edge +0.5pp.
Best available odds: 3.7 at stake · odds value -3%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.70 with stake. The model has it at 26.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 25.7% (+0.5pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
| Source | Fulham | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 40.3% | 26.2% | 33.5% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 30.8% | 25.7% | 43.5% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 34.5% | 26.1% | 39.4% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 1, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Fulham | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.15 | 3.7 | 2.23 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3 | 3.7 | 2.14 |
| vave | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.17 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.05 | 3.6 | 2.19 |
| ★ Best | 3.15 stake | 3.7 stake | 2.23 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Fulham 40% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 34%; expected goals 1.43-1.28; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 34.5%/26.1%/39.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Fulham win: 40%
- Draw: 26%
- Chelsea win: 34%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.43 - 1.28
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Fulham Elo 1723 · Chelsea Elo 1739
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at Craven Cottage: Fulham 40%, the draw 26%, Chelsea 34%. With near-level Elo ratings (Fulham 1723, Chelsea 1739), Fulham are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Fulham vs Chelsea?
Fulham are favoured at 40%. Fulham 40% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 34%.
What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Chelsea?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Fulham vs Chelsea?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 30.8% Fulham win, 25.7% draw, 43.5% Chelsea win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 34.5% / 26.1% / 39.4%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
Will Fulham vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Chelsea?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.