Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction

Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 22 · Craven Cottage

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Aston Villa narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Fulham 34%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 40%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%

Fulham vs Aston Villa prediction: 34% / 26% / 40% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 40%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Fulham 34% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 40%; expected goals 1.28-1.42; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Fulham win: 34%
Draw: 26%
Aston Villa win: 40%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.28 - 1.42
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Fulham Elo 1699 · Aston Villa Elo 1781

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 22 fixture at Craven Cottage: Fulham 34%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 40%. With a clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1781 vs 1699), Aston Villa are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Fulham vs Aston Villa?

Aston Villa are favoured at 40%. Fulham 34% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 40%.

What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Fulham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.