Everton vs Newcastle United Prediction

Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 24 · Hill Dickinson Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Everton narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: Everton 38%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 36%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%

Everton vs Newcastle United prediction: 38% / 26% / 36% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Everton
model top outcome · 38%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Everton 38% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 36%; expected goals 1.38-1.32; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Everton win: 38%
Draw: 26%
Newcastle United win: 36%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.38 - 1.32
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Everton Elo 1702 · Newcastle United Elo 1737

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 24 fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium: Everton 38%, the draw 26%, Newcastle United 36%. With a modest Elo edge to Newcastle United (1737 vs 1702), Everton are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Everton vs Newcastle United?

Everton are favoured at 38%. Everton 38% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 36%.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Everton vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.