FootyTips 
Everton vs Crystal Palace 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Everton narrowly favoured (42%). Overall probabilities: Everton 42%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 32%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 42%
model top outcome · 42%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Crystal Palace win
Model 31.8% vs market 27.9%, edge +3.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.45 at stake · odds value +10%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Crystal Palace win is 3.45 with stake. The model has it at 31.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.9% (+3.9pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Everton win
Model 42.1% vs market 44.4%, edge -2.2pp.
Best available odds: 2.16 at stake · odds value -9%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Everton win is 2.16 with stake. The model has it at 42.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 44.4% (-2.2pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.1% vs market 27.7%, edge -1.6pp.
Best available odds: 3.5 at stake · odds value -9%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.50 with stake. The model has it at 26.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.7% (-1.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
| Source | Everton | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 42.1% | 26.1% | 31.8% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 44.4% | 27.7% | 27.9% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 43.5% | 27.0% | 29.4% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 1, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Everton | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.16 | 3.5 | 3.45 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.12 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| vave | 2.11 | 3.4 | 3.35 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.12 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| ★ Best | 2.16 stake | 3.5 stake | 3.45 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Everton 42% / Draw 26% / Crystal Palace 32%; expected goals 1.47-1.24; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 43.5%/27.0%/29.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Everton win: 42%
- Draw: 26%
- Crystal Palace win: 32%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.47 - 1.24
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Everton Elo 1702 · Crystal Palace Elo 1700
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium: Everton 42%, the draw 26%, Crystal Palace 32%. With near-level Elo ratings (Everton 1702, Crystal Palace 1700), Everton are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton are favoured at 42%. Everton 42% / Draw 26% / Crystal Palace 32%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Everton vs Crystal Palace?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 44.4% Everton win, 27.7% draw, 27.9% Crystal Palace win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 43.5% / 27.0% / 29.4%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
Will Everton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.