FootyTips 
Everton vs Crystal Palace 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Match Status
Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Everton narrowly favoured (42%). Overall probabilities: Everton 42%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 32%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 42%
model top outcome · 42%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Everton 42% / Draw 26% / Crystal Palace 32%; expected goals 1.47-1.24; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 43.0%/27.2%/29.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace. Model pick: Everton. Actual result: Everton.
Brier contribution: 0.5040 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Everton win: 42%
- Draw: 26%
- Crystal Palace win: 32%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.47 - 1.24
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Everton Elo 1721 · Crystal Palace Elo 1672
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-22. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 1 fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium: Everton 42%, the draw 26%, Crystal Palace 32%. With a modest Elo edge to Everton (1721 vs 1672), Everton are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton are favoured at 42%. Everton 42% / Draw 26% / Crystal Palace 32%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Everton vs Crystal Palace?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 43.5% Everton win, 28.0% draw, 28.5% Crystal Palace win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 43.0% / 27.2% / 29.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Everton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.