FootyTips 
Everton vs Chelsea 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 11:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Everton narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Everton 39%, draw 26%, Chelsea 35%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Everton win
Model 38.9% vs market 30.1%, edge +8.7pp.
Best available odds: 3.2 at stake · odds value +24%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Everton win is 3.20 with stake. The model has it at 38.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 30.1% (+8.7pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Chelsea win
Model 34.9% vs market 43.2%, edge -8.3pp.
Best available odds: 2.17 at duelbits · odds value -24%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Chelsea win is 2.17 with duelbits. The model has it at 34.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 43.2% (-8.3pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.3% vs market 26.7%, edge -0.4pp.
Best available odds: 3.6 at stake · odds value -5%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.60 with stake. The model has it at 26.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.7% (-0.4pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Everton | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 38.9% | 26.3% | 34.9% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave) | 30.1% | 26.7% | 43.2% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 33.5% | 26.6% | 39.9% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Everton | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.13 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3 | 3.4 | 2.11 |
| vave | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.16 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.17 |
| ★ Best | 3.2 stake | 3.6 stake | 2.17 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Everton 39% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 35%; expected goals 1.39-1.31; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 33.5%/26.6%/39.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Everton win: 39%
- Draw: 26%
- Chelsea win: 35%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.39 - 1.31
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Everton Elo 1721 · Chelsea Elo 1751
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 7 fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium: Everton 39%, the draw 26%, Chelsea 35%. With a modest Elo edge to Chelsea (1751 vs 1721), Everton are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton are favoured at 39%. Everton 39% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 35%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Everton vs Chelsea?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave imply 30.1% Everton win, 26.7% draw, 43.2% Chelsea win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 33.5% / 26.6% / 39.9%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Everton vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.