FootyTips 
Everton vs Chelsea 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Match Status
Everton 0-2 Chelsea · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Everton narrowly favoured (41%). Overall probabilities: Everton 41%, draw 26%, Chelsea 33%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 41%
model top outcome · 41%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Everton 41% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 33%; expected goals 1.44-1.27; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 34.5%/26.1%/39.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Everton 0-2 Chelsea. Model pick: Everton. Actual result: Chelsea.
Brier contribution: 0.6854 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Everton win: 41%
- Draw: 26%
- Chelsea win: 33%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.44 - 1.27
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Everton Elo 1713 · Chelsea Elo 1762
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-16. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 7 fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium: Everton 41%, the draw 26%, Chelsea 33%. With a modest Elo edge to Chelsea (1762 vs 1713), Everton are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton are favoured at 41%. Everton 41% / Draw 26% / Chelsea 33%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Everton vs Chelsea?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 30.3% Everton win, 25.8% draw, 43.8% Chelsea win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 34.5% / 26.1% / 39.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Everton vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.