FootyTips 
Everton vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 37 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 61%. Overall probabilities: Everton 17%, draw 22%, Arsenal 61%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 61%
model top outcome · 61%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Everton 17% / Draw 22% / Arsenal 61%; expected goals 0.94-1.94; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Everton win: 17%
- Draw: 22%
- Arsenal win: 61%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.94 - 1.94
- Over 2.5: 55%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Model Ratings
Everton Elo 1702 · Arsenal Elo 1979
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 61% in this Matchweek 37 fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium — Everton 17%, the draw 22%, Arsenal 61%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1979 vs 1702), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Everton vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 61%. Everton 17% / Draw 22% / Arsenal 61%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Everton vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.