FootyTips 
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Selhurst Park
Match Status
Kickoff 13:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Nottingham Forest narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Crystal Palace 35%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 39%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Nottingham Forest win
Model 39.1% vs market 35.9%, edge +3.1pp.
Best available odds: 2.65 at duelbits · odds value +3%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Nottingham Forest win is 2.65 with duelbits. The model has it at 39.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 35.9% (+3.1pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.3% vs market 28.6%, edge -2.3pp.
Best available odds: 3.4 at cloudbet · odds value -11%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.40 with cloudbet. The model has it at 26.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 28.6% (-2.3pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Crystal Palace win
Model 34.7% vs market 35.7%, edge -1.0pp.
Best available odds: 2.7 at stake · odds value -6%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Crystal Palace win is 2.70 with stake. The model has it at 34.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 35.7% (-1.0pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Crystal Palace | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 34.7% | 26.3% | 39.1% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave) | 35.7% | 28.6% | 35.9% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 35.3% | 27.6% | 37.1% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Crystal Palace | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.55 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.55 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| roobet | 2.64 | 3.3 | 2.64 |
| vave | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.6 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.7 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| ★ Best | 2.7 stake | 3.4 cloudbet | 2.65 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Crystal Palace 35% / Draw 26% / Nottingham Forest 39%; expected goals 1.30-1.40; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 35.3%/27.6%/37.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Crystal Palace win: 35%
- Draw: 26%
- Nottingham Forest win: 39%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.30 - 1.40
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Crystal Palace Elo 1672 · Nottingham Forest Elo 1744
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 6 fixture at Selhurst Park: Crystal Palace 35%, the draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 39%. With a modest Elo edge to Nottingham Forest (1744 vs 1672), Nottingham Forest are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest are favoured at 39%. Crystal Palace 35% / Draw 26% / Nottingham Forest 39%.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave imply 35.7% Crystal Palace win, 28.6% draw, 35.9% Nottingham Forest win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 35.3% / 27.6% / 37.1%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.