Crystal Palace vs Leeds United Prediction

May 30, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 38 · Selhurst Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Leeds United narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: Crystal Palace 36%, draw 26%, Leeds United 38%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%

Crystal Palace vs Leeds United prediction: 36% / 26% / 38% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Leeds United
model top outcome · 38%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-07
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Crystal Palace 36% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 38%; expected goals 1.32-1.38; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Crystal Palace win: 36%
Draw: 26%
Leeds United win: 38%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.32 - 1.38
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Crystal Palace Elo 1675 · Leeds United Elo 1737

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-07. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 38 fixture at Selhurst Park: Crystal Palace 36%, the draw 26%, Leeds United 38%. With a modest Elo edge to Leeds United (1737 vs 1675), Leeds United are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Leeds United?

Leeds United are favoured at 38%. Crystal Palace 36% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 38%.

What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Crystal Palace vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.