Crystal Palace vs Leeds United Prediction

May 30, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 38 · Selhurst Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Crystal Palace narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Crystal Palace 40%, draw 26%, Leeds United 34%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%

Crystal Palace vs Leeds United prediction: 40% / 26% / 34% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Crystal Palace
model top outcome · 40%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Crystal Palace 40% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 34%; expected goals 1.41-1.29; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Crystal Palace win: 40%
Draw: 26%
Leeds United win: 34%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.41 - 1.29
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Crystal Palace Elo 1700 · Leeds United Elo 1724

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 38 fixture at Selhurst Park: Crystal Palace 40%, the draw 26%, Leeds United 34%. With near-level Elo ratings (Crystal Palace 1700, Leeds United 1724), Crystal Palace are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Leeds United?

Crystal Palace are favoured at 40%. Crystal Palace 40% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 34%.

What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Crystal Palace vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.