Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction

May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 34 · Selhurst Park

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Aston Villa to win at 45%. Overall probabilities: Crystal Palace 29%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 45%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 45%

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction: 29% / 26% / 45% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 45%

0-1
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Crystal Palace 29% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 45%; expected goals 1.18-1.54; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Crystal Palace win: 29%
Draw: 26%
Aston Villa win: 45%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.18 - 1.54
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Crystal Palace Elo 1648 · Aston Villa Elo 1781

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model rates Aston Villa clear favourites at 45% in this Matchweek 34 fixture at Selhurst Park — Crystal Palace 29%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 45%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1781 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?

Aston Villa are favoured at 45%. Crystal Palace 29% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 45%.

What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.