FootyTips 
Coventry City vs Newcastle United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Coventry Building Society Arena
Match Status
Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Newcastle United to win at 48%. Overall probabilities: Coventry City 27%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 48%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 48%
model top outcome · 48%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Coventry City 27% / Draw 25% / Newcastle United 48%; expected goals 1.14-1.60; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 27.7%/25.8%/46.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United. Model pick: Newcastle United. Actual result: Coventry City.
Brier contribution: 0.8289 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Coventry City win: 27%
- Draw: 25%
- Newcastle United win: 48%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.14 - 1.60
- Over 2.5: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Coventry City Elo 1598 · Newcastle United Elo 1707
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Newcastle United clear favourites at 48% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at Coventry Building Society Arena — Coventry City 27%, the draw 25%, Newcastle United 48%. A clear Elo edge to Newcastle United (1707 vs 1598), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Newcastle United are favoured at 48%. Coventry City 27% / Draw 25% / Newcastle United 48%.
What is the predicted score for Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 28.4% Coventry City win, 26.1% draw, 45.6% Newcastle United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 27.7% / 25.8% / 46.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Coventry City vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.