FootyTips 
Coventry City vs Newcastle United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Coventry Building Society Arena
Match Status
Kickoff 19:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Newcastle United to win at 50%. Overall probabilities: Coventry City 25%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 50%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 50%
model top outcome · 50%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Newcastle United win
Model 49.7% vs market 44.9%, edge +4.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.1 at duelbits · odds value +4%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Newcastle United win is 2.10 with duelbits. The model has it at 49.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 44.9% (+4.8pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Coventry City win
Model 25.4% vs market 28.2%, edge -2.8pp.
Best available odds: 3.35 at stake · odds value -15%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Coventry City win is 3.35 with stake. The model has it at 25.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 28.2% (-2.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 24.9% vs market 26.6%, edge -1.6pp.
Best available odds: 3.6 at stake · odds value -10%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.60 with stake. The model has it at 24.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.6% (-1.6pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Coventry City | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 25.4% | 24.9% | 49.7% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave) | 28.2% | 26.6% | 44.9% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 27.1% | 26.0% | 46.9% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Coventry City | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.35 | 3.6 | 2.06 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.3 | 3.45 | 2.09 |
| roobet | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.06 |
| vave | 3.25 | 3.5 | 2.09 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.3 | 3.55 | 2.1 |
| ★ Best | 3.35 stake | 3.6 stake | 2.1 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Coventry City 25% / Draw 25% / Newcastle United 50%; expected goals 1.11-1.65; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 27.1%/26.0%/46.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Coventry City win: 25%
- Draw: 25%
- Newcastle United win: 50%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.11 - 1.65
- Over 2.5: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Coventry City Elo 1563 · Newcastle United Elo 1737
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Newcastle United clear favourites at 50% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at Coventry Building Society Arena — Coventry City 25%, the draw 25%, Newcastle United 50%. A clear Elo edge to Newcastle United (1737 vs 1563), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Newcastle United are favoured at 50%. Coventry City 25% / Draw 25% / Newcastle United 50%.
What is the predicted score for Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, roobet, stake, vave imply 28.2% Coventry City win, 26.6% draw, 44.9% Newcastle United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 27.1% / 26.0% / 46.9%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Coventry City vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.