FootyTips 
Chelsea vs Sunderland 
Prediction
· Matchweek 21 · Stamford Bridge
Match Status
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Chelsea to win at 53%. Overall probabilities: Chelsea 53%, draw 24%, Sunderland 23%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 53%
model top outcome · 53%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Chelsea 53% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 23%; expected goals 1.72-1.06; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Chelsea win: 53%
- Draw: 24%
- Sunderland win: 23%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.72 - 1.06
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Chelsea Elo 1751 · Sunderland Elo 1648
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Chelsea clear favourites at 53% in this Matchweek 21 fixture at Stamford Bridge — Chelsea 53%, the draw 24%, Sunderland 23%. A clear Elo edge to Chelsea (1751 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Chelsea vs Sunderland?
Chelsea are favoured at 53%. Chelsea 53% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 23%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Sunderland?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Chelsea vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Sunderland?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.