Chelsea vs Sunderland Prediction

Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 21 · Stamford Bridge

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Chelsea to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: Chelsea 58%, draw 23%, Sunderland 19%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%

Chelsea vs Sunderland prediction: 58% / 23% / 19% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Chelsea
model top outcome · 58%

1-0
model score forecast

54%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Chelsea 58% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 19%; expected goals 1.87-0.97; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Chelsea win: 58%
Draw: 23%
Sunderland win: 19%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.87 - 0.97
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Chelsea Elo 1762 · Sunderland Elo 1608

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Chelsea clear favourites at 58% in this Matchweek 21 fixture at Stamford Bridge — Chelsea 58%, the draw 23%, Sunderland 19%. A clear Elo edge to Chelsea (1762 vs 1608), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Chelsea vs Sunderland?

Chelsea are favoured at 58%. Chelsea 58% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 19%.

What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Chelsea vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.