FootyTips 
Chelsea vs Manchester United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 9 · Stamford Bridge
Match Status
Chelsea 2-0 Manchester United · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Chelsea narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Chelsea 39%, draw 26%, Manchester United 35%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Oct 18, 08:02 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Chelsea | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.02 | 3.75 | 3.35 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.01 | 3.75 | 3.3 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.06 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| ★ Best | 2.06 duelbits | 3.75 stake | 3.35 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Chelsea 39% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 35%; expected goals 1.40-1.30; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 43.7%/25.6%/30.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Chelsea 2-0 Manchester United. Model pick: Chelsea. Actual result: Chelsea.
Brier contribution: 0.5587 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Chelsea win: 39%
- Draw: 26%
- Manchester United win: 35%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.40 - 1.30
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Chelsea Elo 1762 · Manchester United Elo 1760
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-31. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 9 fixture at Stamford Bridge: Chelsea 39%, the draw 26%, Manchester United 35%. With near-level Elo ratings (Chelsea 1762, Manchester United 1760), Chelsea are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Chelsea are favoured at 39%. Chelsea 39% / Draw 26% / Manchester United 35%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Chelsea vs Manchester United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 46.8% Chelsea win, 25.0% draw, 28.2% Manchester United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 43.7% / 25.6% / 30.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Chelsea vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.