FootyTips 
Chelsea vs Hull City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 4 · Stamford Bridge
Match Status
Chelsea 2-2 Hull City · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Chelsea to win at 70%. Overall probabilities: Chelsea 70%, draw 18%, Hull City 12%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 70%
model top outcome · 70%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Chelsea 70% / Draw 18% / Hull City 12%; expected goals 2.26-0.81; BTTS 50%; blended best estimate 75.9%/15.1%/9.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Chelsea 2-2 Hull City. Model pick: Chelsea. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 1.1711 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Chelsea win: 70%
- Draw: 18%
- Hull City win: 12%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.26 - 0.81
- Over 2.5: 59%
- Both teams to score: 50%
Model Ratings
Chelsea Elo 1751 · Hull City Elo 1499
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Chelsea clear favourites at 70% in this Matchweek 4 fixture at Stamford Bridge — Chelsea 70%, the draw 18%, Hull City 12%. A big Elo gap in Chelsea's favour (1751 vs 1499), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 50%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Chelsea vs Hull City?
Chelsea are favoured at 70%. Chelsea 70% / Draw 18% / Hull City 12%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Hull City?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Chelsea vs Hull City?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 79.4% Chelsea win, 13.2% draw, 7.5% Hull City win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 75.9% / 15.1% / 9.0%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Chelsea vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Hull City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.