Chelsea vs Fulham Prediction

Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 31 · Stamford Bridge

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Chelsea narrowly favoured (44%). Overall probabilities: Chelsea 44%, draw 26%, Fulham 30%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 44%

Chelsea vs Fulham prediction: 44% / 26% / 30% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Chelsea
model top outcome · 44%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Chelsea 44% / Draw 26% / Fulham 30%; expected goals 1.50-1.21; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 43.0%/25.9%/31.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Chelsea win: 44%
Draw: 26%
Fulham win: 30%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.50 - 1.21
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Chelsea Elo 1739 · Fulham Elo 1723

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 31 fixture at Stamford Bridge: Chelsea 44%, the draw 26%, Fulham 30%. With near-level Elo ratings (Chelsea 1739, Fulham 1723), Chelsea are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Chelsea vs Fulham?

Chelsea are favoured at 44%. Chelsea 44% / Draw 26% / Fulham 30%.

What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Fulham?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Chelsea vs Fulham?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from cloudbet, duelbits imply 42.6% Chelsea win, 26.0% draw, 31.4% Fulham win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 43.0% / 25.9% / 31.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Chelsea vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Fulham?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.