Chelsea vs Fulham Prediction

Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 31 · Stamford Bridge

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Chelsea to win at 49%. Overall probabilities: Chelsea 49%, draw 25%, Fulham 26%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 49%

Chelsea vs Fulham prediction: 49% / 25% / 26% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Chelsea
model top outcome · 49%

1-0
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Chelsea 49% / Draw 25% / Fulham 26%; expected goals 1.61-1.13; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 44.9%/25.7%/29.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI Premier League prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Win Probability

Chelsea win: 49%
Draw: 25%
Fulham win: 26%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.61 - 1.13
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Chelsea Elo 1751 · Fulham Elo 1689

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Chelsea clear favourites at 49% in this Matchweek 31 fixture at Stamford Bridge — Chelsea 49%, the draw 25%, Fulham 26%. A modest Elo edge to Chelsea (1751 vs 1689), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Chelsea vs Fulham?

Chelsea are favoured at 49%. Chelsea 49% / Draw 25% / Fulham 26%.

What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Fulham?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Chelsea vs Fulham?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from cloudbet, duelbits imply 42.6% Chelsea win, 26.0% draw, 31.4% Fulham win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 44.9% / 25.7% / 29.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Chelsea vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Fulham?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.