FootyTips 
Chelsea vs Bournemouth 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Stamford Bridge
Match Status
Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Chelsea narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: Chelsea 38%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 36%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%
model top outcome · 38%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Chelsea 38% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 36%; expected goals 1.37-1.33; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 46.9%/25.3%/27.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth. Model pick: Chelsea. Actual result: Chelsea.
Brier contribution: 0.5880 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Chelsea win: 38%
- Draw: 26%
- Bournemouth win: 36%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.37 - 1.33
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Chelsea Elo 1762 · Bournemouth Elo 1806
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-10. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 6 fixture at Stamford Bridge: Chelsea 38%, the draw 26%, Bournemouth 36%. With a modest Elo edge to Bournemouth (1806 vs 1762), Chelsea are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Chelsea are favoured at 38%. Chelsea 38% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 36%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 53.1% Chelsea win, 24.1% draw, 22.8% Bournemouth win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 46.9% / 25.3% / 27.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Chelsea vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.