FootyTips 
Chelsea vs Bournemouth 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Stamford Bridge
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Chelsea narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: Chelsea 38%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 36%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%
model top outcome · 38%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Chelsea win
Model 37.7% vs market 52.6%, edge -14.8pp.
Best available odds: 1.79 at duelbits · odds value -32%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Chelsea win is 1.79 with duelbits. The model has it at 37.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 52.6% (-14.8pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Bournemouth win
Model 36.0% vs market 24.1%, edge +11.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.95 at stake · odds value +42%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Bournemouth win is 3.95 with stake. The model has it at 36.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.1% (+11.9pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.3% vs market 23.2%, edge +3.1pp.
Best available odds: 4.2 at stake · odds value +10%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.20 with stake. The model has it at 26.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 23.2% (+3.1pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Chelsea | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 37.7% | 26.3% | 36.0% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 52.6% | 23.2% | 24.1% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 46.7% | 24.7% | 28.6% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Chelsea | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.76 | 4.2 | 3.95 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.78 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| vave | 1.78 | 4 | 3.85 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.79 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| ★ Best | 1.79 duelbits | 4.2 stake | 3.95 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Chelsea 38% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 36%; expected goals 1.37-1.33; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 46.7%/24.7%/28.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Chelsea win: 38%
- Draw: 26%
- Bournemouth win: 36%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.37 - 1.33
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Chelsea Elo 1751 · Bournemouth Elo 1792
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 6 fixture at Stamford Bridge: Chelsea 38%, the draw 26%, Bournemouth 36%. With a modest Elo edge to Bournemouth (1792 vs 1751), Chelsea are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Chelsea are favoured at 38%. Chelsea 38% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 36%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 52.6% Chelsea win, 23.2% draw, 24.1% Bournemouth win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 46.7% / 24.7% / 28.6%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Chelsea vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.