FootyTips 
Chelsea vs Bournemouth 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Stamford Bridge
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Bournemouth narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Chelsea 35%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 39%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Chelsea 35% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 39%; expected goals 1.31-1.39; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Chelsea win: 35%
- Draw: 26%
- Bournemouth win: 39%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.31 - 1.39
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Chelsea Elo 1739 · Bournemouth Elo 1806
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 6 fixture at Stamford Bridge: Chelsea 35%, the draw 26%, Bournemouth 39%. With a modest Elo edge to Bournemouth (1806 vs 1739), Bournemouth are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Bournemouth are favoured at 39%. Chelsea 35% / Draw 26% / Bournemouth 39%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Chelsea vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.