Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction

Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 29 · Stamford Bridge

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 57%. Overall probabilities: Chelsea 20%, draw 23%, Arsenal 57%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 57%

Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction: 20% / 23% / 57% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 57%

0-1
model score forecast

54%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Chelsea 20% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 57%; expected goals 1.00-1.83; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/chelsea-vs-arsenal-2027-03-13-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/chelsea-vs-arsenal-2027-03-13.png" alt="Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI Premier League prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Win Probability

Chelsea win: 20%
Draw: 23%
Arsenal win: 57%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.00 - 1.83
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Chelsea Elo 1739 · Arsenal Elo 1979

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 57% in this Matchweek 29 fixture at Stamford Bridge — Chelsea 20%, the draw 23%, Arsenal 57%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1979 vs 1739), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Chelsea vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favoured at 57%. Chelsea 20% / Draw 23% / Arsenal 57%.

What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Arsenal?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Chelsea vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.