Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Prediction

Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 12 · American Express Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Brighton and Hove Albion to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Brighton and Hove Albion 46%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 28%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%

Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United prediction: 46% / 26% / 28% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Brighton and Hove Albion
model top outcome · 46%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Brighton and Hove Albion 46% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 28%; expected goals 1.57-1.16; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Brighton and Hove Albion win: 46%
Draw: 26%
Newcastle United win: 28%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.57 - 1.16
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Brighton and Hove Albion Elo 1780 · Newcastle United Elo 1737

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs Brighton and Hove Albion clear favourites at 46% in this Matchweek 12 fixture at American Express Stadium — Brighton and Hove Albion 46%, the draw 26%, Newcastle United 28%. A modest Elo edge to Brighton and Hove Albion (1780 vs 1737), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Brighton and Hove Albion are favoured at 46%. Brighton and Hove Albion 46% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 28%.

What is the predicted score for Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.