Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Prediction

Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 12 · American Express Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Brighton and Hove Albion narrowly favoured (44%). Overall probabilities: Brighton and Hove Albion 44%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 30%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 44%

Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United prediction: 44% / 26% / 30% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Brighton and Hove Albion
model top outcome · 44%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Brighton and Hove Albion 44% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 30%; expected goals 1.51-1.21; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

Embed this prediction

Free for your site or blog — paste this HTML. The card refreshes automatically as our model updates.

<a href="https://footytips.io/premier-league/brighton-and-hove-albion-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-28-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/brighton-and-hove-albion-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-28.png" alt="Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United prediction — Premier League" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI Premier League prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Win Probability

Brighton and Hove Albion win: 44%
Draw: 26%
Newcastle United win: 30%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.51 - 1.21
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Brighton and Hove Albion Elo 1756 · Newcastle United Elo 1737

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 12 fixture at American Express Stadium: Brighton and Hove Albion 44%, the draw 26%, Newcastle United 30%. With near-level Elo ratings (Brighton and Hove Albion 1756, Newcastle United 1737), Brighton and Hove Albion are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Brighton and Hove Albion are favoured at 44%. Brighton and Hove Albion 44% / Draw 26% / Newcastle United 30%.

What is the predicted score for Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.