FootyTips 
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · American Express Stadium
Match Status
Brighton and Hove Albion 3-0 Arsenal · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 54%. Overall probabilities: Brighton and Hove Albion 22%, draw 24%, Arsenal 54%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 54%
model top outcome · 54%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Brighton and Hove Albion 22% / Draw 24% / Arsenal 54%; expected goals 1.03-1.77; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 20.4%/24.2%/55.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Brighton and Hove Albion 3-0 Arsenal. Model pick: Arsenal. Actual result: Brighton and Hove Albion.
Brier contribution: 0.9689 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Brighton and Hove Albion win: 22%
- Draw: 24%
- Arsenal win: 54%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.03 - 1.77
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Brighton and Hove Albion Elo 1780 · Arsenal Elo 2000
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-19. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 54% in this Matchweek 5 fixture at American Express Stadium — Brighton and Hove Albion 22%, the draw 24%, Arsenal 54%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1780), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 54%. Brighton and Hove Albion 22% / Draw 24% / Arsenal 54%.
What is the predicted score for Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 19.6% Brighton and Hove Albion win, 24.4% draw, 56.0% Arsenal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 20.4% / 24.2% / 55.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.