FootyTips 
Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur 
Prediction
· Matchweek 1 · Gtech Community Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 16:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Brentford to win at 53%. Overall probabilities: Brentford 53%, draw 24%, Tottenham Hotspur 23%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 53%
model top outcome · 53%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Brentford win
Model 53.1% vs market 40.4%, edge +12.7pp.
Best available odds: 2.37 at stake · odds value +26%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model far above market: the current top sportsbook price for Brentford win is 2.37 with stake. The model has it at 53.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 40.4% (+12.7pp edge).
A gap this large usually means the model is missing information the market already has (injuries, line-ups, form) — read it as a caution flag, not an opportunity. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Tottenham Hotspur win
Model 22.7% vs market 33.6%, edge -10.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.9 at stake · odds value -34%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Tottenham Hotspur win is 2.90 with stake. The model has it at 22.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 33.6% (-10.8pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 24.2% vs market 26.2%, edge -2.1pp.
Best available odds: 3.65 at stake · odds value -12%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.65 with stake. The model has it at 24.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.2% (-2.1pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
| Source | Brentford | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 53.1% | 24.2% | 22.7% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 40.4% | 26.2% | 33.6% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 45.4% | 25.6% | 29.0% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Aug 1, 12:02 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Brentford | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.37 | 3.65 | 2.9 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.75 |
| vave | 2.31 | 3.55 | 2.8 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.33 | 3.6 | 2.85 |
| ★ Best | 2.37 stake | 3.65 stake | 2.9 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Brentford 53% / Draw 24% / Tottenham Hotspur 23%; expected goals 1.73-1.05; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 45.4%/25.6%/29.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Brentford win: 53%
- Draw: 24%
- Tottenham Hotspur win: 23%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.73 - 1.05
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Brentford Elo 1748 · Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1642
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Brentford clear favourites at 53% in this Matchweek 1 fixture at Gtech Community Stadium — Brentford 53%, the draw 24%, Tottenham Hotspur 23%. A clear Elo edge to Brentford (1748 vs 1642), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Brentford are favoured at 53%. Brentford 53% / Draw 24% / Tottenham Hotspur 23%.
What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 40.4% Brentford win, 26.2% draw, 33.6% Tottenham Hotspur win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 45.4% / 25.6% / 29.0%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-08-01T00:02:17.205Z.
Will Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.