Brentford vs Sunderland Prediction

Sep 5, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 3 · Gtech Community Stadium

Match Status

Brentford 1-1 Sunderland · FT · Miss

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Brentford to win at 54%. Overall probabilities: Brentford 54%, draw 24%, Sunderland 22%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 54%

Brentford 1-1 Sunderland result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Brentford
model top outcome · 54%

1-0
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-05
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Brentford 54% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 22%; expected goals 1.75-1.04; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Brentford 1-1 Sunderland. Model pick: Brentford. Actual result: Draw.

Brier contribution: 0.9168 · settled 2026-09-20

Win Probability

Brentford win: 54%
Draw: 24%
Sunderland win: 22%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.75 - 1.04
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Brentford Elo 1759 · Sunderland Elo 1648

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-05. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Brentford clear favourites at 54% in this Matchweek 3 fixture at Gtech Community Stadium — Brentford 54%, the draw 24%, Sunderland 22%. A clear Elo edge to Brentford (1759 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Brentford vs Sunderland?

Brentford are favoured at 54%. Brentford 54% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 22%.

What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Brentford vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Brentford vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.