FootyTips 
Brentford vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Gtech Community Stadium
Match Status
Brentford 1-2 Liverpool · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Liverpool narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Brentford 35%, draw 26%, Liverpool 39%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Brentford 35% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 39%; expected goals 1.31-1.39; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 38.0%/26.1%/36.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Brentford 1-2 Liverpool. Model pick: Liverpool. Actual result: Liverpool.
Brier contribution: 0.5704 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Brentford win: 35%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 39%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.31 - 1.39
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Brentford Elo 1768 · Liverpool Elo 1838
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-16. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 7 fixture at Gtech Community Stadium: Brentford 35%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 39%. With a modest Elo edge to Liverpool (1838 vs 1768), Liverpool are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Brentford vs Liverpool?
Liverpool are favoured at 39%. Brentford 35% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 39%.
What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Brentford vs Liverpool?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 39.8% Brentford win, 25.9% draw, 34.3% Liverpool win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 38.0% / 26.1% / 36.0%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Brentford vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.