FootyTips 
Brentford vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Gtech Community Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Liverpool narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Brentford 35%, draw 26%, Liverpool 39%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.3% vs market 24.9%, edge +1.4pp.
Best available odds: 3.85 at stake · odds value +1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.85 with stake. The model has it at 26.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.9% (+1.4pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Liverpool win
Model 38.6% vs market 39.2%, edge -0.7pp.
Best available odds: 2.4 at duelbits · odds value -7%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Liverpool win is 2.40 with duelbits. The model has it at 38.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 39.2% (-0.7pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Brentford win
Model 35.2% vs market 35.7%, edge -0.5pp.
Best available odds: 2.65 at stake · odds value -7%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Brentford win is 2.65 with stake. The model has it at 35.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 35.7% (-0.5pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Brentford | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 35.2% | 26.3% | 38.6% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave) | 35.7% | 24.9% | 39.2% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 35.5% | 25.5% | 39.0% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Brentford | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.65 | 3.85 | 2.35 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| vave | 2.6 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.65 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| ★ Best | 2.65 stake | 3.85 stake | 2.4 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Brentford 35% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 39%; expected goals 1.31-1.39; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 35.5%/25.5%/39.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Brentford win: 35%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 39%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.31 - 1.39
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Brentford Elo 1759 · Liverpool Elo 1826
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 7 fixture at Gtech Community Stadium: Brentford 35%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 39%. With a modest Elo edge to Liverpool (1826 vs 1759), Liverpool are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Brentford vs Liverpool?
Liverpool are favoured at 39%. Brentford 35% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 39%.
What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Brentford vs Liverpool?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave imply 35.7% Brentford win, 24.9% draw, 39.2% Liverpool win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 35.5% / 25.5% / 39.0%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Brentford vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.