FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Sunderland 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 13:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Bournemouth to win at 57%. Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 57%, draw 23%, Sunderland 20%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 57%
model top outcome · 57%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Bournemouth win
Model 57.1% vs market 53.9%, edge +3.2pp.
Best available odds: 1.74 at duelbits · odds value -1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Bournemouth win is 1.74 with duelbits. The model has it at 57.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 53.9% (+3.2pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 23.1% vs market 24.9%, edge -1.8pp.
Best available odds: 3.9 at stake · odds value -10%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.90 with stake. The model has it at 23.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.9% (-1.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Sunderland win
Model 19.8% vs market 21.2%, edge -1.4pp.
Best available odds: 4.6 at stake · odds value -9%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Sunderland win is 4.60 with stake. The model has it at 19.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 21.2% (-1.4pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 57.1% | 23.1% | 19.8% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave) | 53.9% | 24.9% | 21.2% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 55.2% | 24.2% | 20.6% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Bournemouth | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.72 | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.7 | 3.6 | 4.25 |
| vave | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.4 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.74 | 3.8 | 4.45 |
| ★ Best | 1.74 duelbits | 3.9 stake | 4.6 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Bournemouth 57% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 20%; expected goals 1.84-0.99; BTTS 53%; blended best estimate 55.2%/24.2%/20.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 57%
- Draw: 23%
- Sunderland win: 20%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.84 - 0.99
- Over 2.5: 54%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1792 · Sunderland Elo 1648
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Bournemouth clear favourites at 57% in this Matchweek 7 fixture at Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth 57%, the draw 23%, Sunderland 20%. A clear Elo edge to Bournemouth (1792 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth are favoured at 57%. Bournemouth 57% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 20%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, stake, vave imply 53.9% Bournemouth win, 24.9% draw, 21.2% Sunderland win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 55.2% / 24.2% / 20.6%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Bournemouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.