FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Sunderland 
Prediction
· Matchweek 7 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Bournemouth to win at 56%. Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 56%, draw 23%, Sunderland 21%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 56%
model top outcome · 56%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Bournemouth 56% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 21%; expected goals 1.81-1.01; BTTS 53%; blended best estimate 49.4%/26.0%/24.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland. Model pick: Bournemouth. Actual result: Bournemouth.
Brier contribution: 0.2913 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 56%
- Draw: 23%
- Sunderland win: 21%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.81 - 1.01
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1806 · Sunderland Elo 1608
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-16. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Bournemouth clear favourites at 56% in this Matchweek 7 fixture at Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth 56%, the draw 23%, Sunderland 21%. A clear Elo edge to Bournemouth (1806 vs 1608), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth are favoured at 56%. Bournemouth 56% / Draw 23% / Sunderland 21%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 45.0% Bournemouth win, 27.7% draw, 27.3% Sunderland win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 49.4% / 26.0% / 24.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Bournemouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.